MODELING THE DETERMINANTS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF ENTERPRISES’ CAPITAL INVESTMENTS IN THE PRE-WAR AND WARTIME PERIODS

Abstract

The article examines the influence of financial and economic factors on the formation of net revenue of production-resource enterprises in Ukraine during the pre-war and wartime periods. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to identify how the economic environment, intensified by wartime disruptions, changes the logic of capital investment efficiency and the role of individual balance-sheet factors in shaping enterprise performance. In order to reveal differences in investment behavior mechanisms, the enterprises were grouped by balance sheet size, which made it possible to distinguish between large, medium, and small business clusters and to compare their responses to changes in the external environment. To ensure the comparability of indicators between 2020 and 2023, the monetary variables for the wartime period were deflated to the price level of the base year, while the original absolute indicators were transformed into relative structural measures. Such an approach made it possible to reduce the distortive effect of inflation and scale differences and to create a more reliable basis for economic and mathematical modeling. The methodological core of the study is formed by multifactor log-log models, which allow the estimation of net revenue elasticity with respect to key financial and economic determinants and provide an interpretable analytical framework for assessing the effectiveness of capital investment use. The modeling results made it possible to identify a structural shift in the determinants of enterprise performance. In particular, the analysis revealed a movement away from an extensive growth logic toward the increasing importance of technical capacity, liquidity, and more efficient use of assets under conditions of economic instability. The study also demonstrates that wartime shocks differentiated the investment behavior of enterprises depending on their scale, which confirms the need for a differentiated analytical approach to evaluating investment efficiency. The obtained results may be used to support managerial decisions aimed at optimizing the structure of capital investments and improving the economic sustainability of enterprises in an unstable environment.