MAPPING CRITICAL IMPORT DEPENDENCIES OF UKRAINE’S MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY AND SUPPLY CHAIN VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS DURING WARTIME

Abstract

The article performs a comprehensive mapping of critical import dependencies in Ukraine's manufacturing industry under martial law (2022–2025). The subject of this study is the structure of critical import dependencies of Ukraine's manufacturing industry and the concentration of suppliers under wartime conditions (2022–2025). The purpose of the paper is to identify the most vulnerable commodity positions (HS-4/HS-6), map supply chain fragility hotspots, and formulate policy recommendations for economic security and industrial policy reform. The methodology combines three analytical levels: macrostructural analysis at HS-2 (import composition dynamics), sectoral HHI/CR3 calculations at HS-4/HS-6 for metallurgy, chemistry, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, and a Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI = HHI × IR × PV) that integrates supplier concentration, import dependence, and political vulnerability of the source country. Data sources include the State Customs Service of Ukraine, UN Comtrade, ITC Trade Map, the National Bank of Ukraine, and sectoral reports from GMK Center, Centre for Economic Strategy, and USGS. Key findings demonstrate that wartime trade reorientation did not reduce structural import dependence but rather redistributed concentration risks: the share of Russia and Belarus (–15.7 percentage points by 2024) was replaced by China (+18 pp, reaching 35.6 % of total imports) and Poland as a dominant coke supplier (93.6 %, HHI = 0.886). For coke metallurgy inputs, manganese ore, and ferrosilico-manganese, the HHI exceeds 0.88–0.97, constituting single points of failure well above the EU CRMA-2023 threshold of 0.25. Four distinct risk zones are identified: red (HHI > 0.50, CR1 > 70 %), orange (HHI 0.25–0.50), and yellow (HHI < 0.25 with import ratio > 50 %). The study concludes that GVC integration without deliberate supplier diversification deepens systemic fragility, and proposes a targeted supply-chain stress-test system analogous to EU CRMA-2023, mandatory strategic reserves for critical HS-6 inputs, a 40 % single-country cap rule, and investment in 8–12 fragility hotspot localization centers.